Latest 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, analysis, and predictions
Do you recall when Seattle Slew captured the Triple Crown in 1977 by winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes? Recall how Seattle Slew only needed three more victories to cap off a nine-game winning streak and how he had won 14 of his previous 17 starts?
Yeah, me neither, young people. I bring up Seattle Slew to draw attention to the reality that the Kentucky Derby in 2022 won’t be pretty.
There are currently no titans or horses with the tenacity of a Seattle Slew queued up for starting gate posts. No horse has ever won the “mortal lock” competition at a Derby.
This year’s class of ’22 is particularly unique. These are grizzled, rough-and-tumble fighters who have tasted both loss and success. The Kentucky Derby is typically a statistical game of who will win, but doubt will rule supreme this year.
And for gamblers, that’s excellent news. Visit the top Kentucky Derby betting sites, then review the most recent odds and information below if you’re interested in placing a wager on the primary race in May.
Why Do Bookmakers Favor Epicenter?
He is trained by Steve Asmussen, a member of the National Racing Hall of Fame, so the answer to that is simple. His owner, Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC, has previously run horses in major stakes races, including the Breeders’ Cup, Kentucky Oaks, and Preakness Stakes.
Last but not least, there is Epicenter. The bay colt, a son of Not This Time and Silent Candy (by Candy Ride), has one of the best records in the business with five money finishes in six career starts, including four victories.
Despite losing to Call Me Midnight by a significant margin in the Lecomte Stakes, he won the Grade II Risen Star Stakes in February and the Grade II, Louisiana Derby in March. With 164 points, he presently holds the top spot on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (R2KD) chart.
Other Potential Kentucky Derby Winners for 2022
It’s one thing to check the Kentucky Derby odds for 2022 merely. Knowing how to exploit them is a different matter. How should you proceed after betting on the Kentucky Derby favourite?
Let’s examine some further potential Kentucky Derby contenders.
Taiba
Even with only two races under his belt, the chestnut colt Taiba appears somewhat of a wonder.
He triumphed in his first maiden race by seven and a half lengths in March (posting a triple-digit speed figure). He won the Santa Anita Derby in the first week of April (Grade I).
Tim Yakteen, the proprietor of Zedan Racing Stables, Inc., recently decided to replace Bob Baffert as Taiba’s trainer. Taiba is the son of Gunrunner, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup, and Needmore Flattery (by Flatter).
With 100 points, he is ranked #8 on the R2KD ranking.
Messier
In my eyes, Messier, another former pupil of Bob Baffert’s, is a strong candidate.
Messier is last on the R2K leaderboard with only 40 R2KD points. Because Baffert was training him then, the ten points he earned for winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and the four he received for placing second in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December are invalid.
Messier, a descendant of Empire Maker and Checkered Past (by Smart Strike), has earned money in each of his six career starts, with first- and second-place results accounting for an equal portion of them. He currently holds the 16th spot on the standings with 40 R2KD points, making a starting position in the Kentucky Derby guaranteed.
His owners include Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm LLC, SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, and Waves Edge Capital LLC.
Zander
With his recent victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I) at Keeneland, this dark bay son of Upstart and Memorials Prevail (by Creative Cause) was already a strong earner and sot up to #2 on the R2KD list.
Zandon overcame obstacles to move up to the front of the field, joined the leaders, and then pulled away in the stretch to win the Blue Grass by two and a half lengths over the next closest rival.
He earned his first four R2KD points in the Grade II Remsen Stakes in December and added ten more with a third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes. Chad Brown, a veteran of the Breeders’ Cup and the Triple Crown, trains Zandon for owner Jeff Drown.
White Abarrio
White Abarrio, the son of Race Day and Catching Diamonds, is now in third place on the R2KD standings (by Into Mischief). Like Zandon, this grey roan colt had a single victory that drastically altered his destiny; in White Abarrio’s case, it was the Florida Deby (Grade I) in early April.
100 R2KD leaderboard points were awarded for that solitary victory. White Abarrio initially earned two points in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November (Grade II). White Abarrio has only finished lower than first once in his five races, in third.
White Abarrio is owned by C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC and is trained by Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
Smile Happy
Smile Happy, the son of Runhappy and Pleasant Smile (by Pleasant Tap), is ranked #10 on the R2KD leaderboard. He worked hard for his 70 points, earning ten with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November of last year and another twenty by coming in second in the Risen Star Stakes in February.
He gained 40 more points to his total on the scoreboard in April after placing second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Ken McPeek instructs him for Lucky Seven Stable (Mackin).
The 2022 Kentucky Derby’s underdogs
The odds for the Kentucky Derby are as erratic as it gets in the betting world. A month ago, horses that were favourites on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are now underdogs with a point to make.
Here are three most likely surprise winners in the Kentucky Derby if you enjoy placing bets on sleepers.
Andy, slow down
Slow Down Andy has earned his position at #11 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard even though the oddsmakers don’t think much of him.
This chestnut colt won the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Sunland Park Derby. He is the son of the 2016 Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist and Edwina E (by Square Eddie). However, after finishing in the middle of the pack in the important Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, he failed to earn R2KD points.
He has 60 points on the R2KD rankings. He has won three of his five career starts for the record. Among the Kentucky Derby hopefuls this year, he has a chance.
Crown Pride
Despite not performing well on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby, Crown Pride won the UAE Derby (Grade II) in Dubai and earned a ticket to Churchill Downs. That win put him at #7 with 100 points on the R2KD ranking.
Crown Pride, a dark bay son of King Kamehameha (Japan) and Emmy’s Pride (Japan) is being trained by Koichi Shintani for owner Teruya Yoshida. For the record, Crown Pride has prevailed in three of his four starts.
The Bomb, Tiz
I eventually settled on Tiz the Bomb just last week while examining the odds for a 2022 Triple Crown victor, presumably since it had just happened. How quickly we forget, huh? I still believe Tiz the Bomb has a chance; my perspective hasn’t changed.
However, the horses he defeated in the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks, Grade II Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes, and Grade III John Battaglia Memorial Stakes will never forget him.
Tiz the Bomb, a bay colt by Hit It a Bomb and Tiz the Key (by Tiznow), is ridden by owner Magdalena Racing, Lessee, and trained by longtime Breeders Cup veteran Ken McPeek.
Who Will Win the 2022 Kentucky Derby? A New Prediction
This April Kentucky Derby odds update presents a bit of a dilemma. As the final Kentucky Derby field approaches, we get a better idea of which horses we prefer, but there isn’t a real heavyweight to lean on upfront.
This year’s crop of Kentucky Derby contenders don’t appear to have any clear leads, so chances on some very genuine possibilities should be longer than usual. If you choose the correct underdog, you may win big.
It helps that all of the competitors’ results this year have been, at best, inconsistent. Tiz the Bomb might not have as much of a chance against a stronger field.
Nevertheless, the three-year-olds competing in the Kentucky Derby in 2022 represent the pinnacle of thoroughbred racing. However, the lack of superstars will likely drive even longer odds, giving cautious gamblers opportunities for profit.
Check out the action at one of our recommended horse racing betting sites below.
